Comparing the Performance of Three Models Incorporating Weather Data to Forecast Dengue Epidemics in Reunion Island, 2018-2019.

We developed mathematical models to analyze a large dengue virus (DENV) epidemic in Reunion Island in 2018-2019. Our models captured major drivers of uncertainty including the complex relationship between climate and DENV transmission, temperature trends, and underreporting. Early assessment correctly concluded that persistence of DENV transmission during the austral winter 2018 was likely and that the second epidemic wave would be larger than the first one. From November 2018, the detection probability was estimated at 10%-20% and, for this range of values, our projections were found to be remarkably accurate. Overall, we estimated that 8% and 18% of the population were infected during the first and second wave, respectively. Out of the 3 models considered, the best-fitting one was calibrated to laboratory entomological data, and accounted for temperature but not precipitation. This study showcases the contribution of modeling to strengthen risk assessments and planning of national and local authorities.

Arboviral Risk Associated with Solid Organ and Hematopoietic Stem Cell Grafts: The Prophylactic Answers Proposed by the French High Council of Public Health in a National Context.

Diseases caused by arboviruses are on the increase worldwide. In addition to arthropod bites, most arboviruses can be transmitted via accessory routes. Products of human origin (labile blood products, solid organs, hematopoietic stem cells, tissues) present a risk of contamination for the recipient if the donation is made when the donor is viremic. Mainland France and its overseas territories are exposed to a complex array of imported and endemic arboviruses, which differ according to their respective location. This narrative review describes the risks of acquiring certain arboviral diseases from human products, mainly solid organs and hematopoietic stem cells, in the French context. The main risks considered in this study are infections by West Nile virus, dengue virus, and tick-borne encephalitis virus. The ancillary risks represented by Usutu virus infection, chikungunya, and Zika are also addressed more briefly. For each disease, the guidelines issued by the French High Council of Public Health, which is responsible for mitigating the risks associated with products of human origin and for supporting public health policy decisions, are briefly outlined. This review highlights the need for a "One Health" approach and to standardize recommendations at the international level in areas with the same viral epidemiology.

From dengue outbreaks to endemicity: Reunion Island, France, 2018 to 2021.

BackgroundAfter 40 years of limited viral circulation, Reunion Island has since 2018 experienced recurrent dengue outbreaks of increasing intensity and severity.AimWe aimed to report on the epidemiology and characteristics of dengue in Reunion Island between 2018 and 2021.MethodsBetween 2018 and August 2021, we systematically collected data on dengue cases via an automated transmission system between the health authorities and the medical laboratories. We set up additional surveillance systems for dengue-related activity in primary care, in emergency departments and in inpatient departments.ResultsUntil 2020, despite numerous cases, outbreaks had a limited public health impact because of few severe cases, low lethality and no heavy burden for the health care system. In 2021, however, the number of severe cases increased (from 0.4% of all cases in 2018 to 0.8% in 2021), as did the number of paediatric cases (from 8% in 2018 to 15% in 2021) and atypical clinical forms of dengue (108 cases of post-dengue maculopathy). Of note, haemorrhagic forms were rare and multi-organ failure was the most frequent severity throughout the study period. In parallel, the dominant serotype switched from DENV2 to DENV1 in 2020 and DENV1 became the only serotype detected in 2021.ConclusionThese findings indicate that dengue is becoming endemic in Reunion Island. Since comorbidities associated with severity of dengue are common in the population, health authorities should carefully consider the impact of dengue when addressing public health policies.

Long lasting anti-IgG chikungunya seropositivity in the Mayotte population will not be enough to prevent future outbreaks: A seroprevalence study, 2019.

Chikungunya is an arboviral disease causing arthralgia which may develop into a debilitating chronic arthritis. In Mayotte, a French overseas department in the Indian Ocean, a chikungunya outbreak was reported in 2006, affecting a third of the population. We aimed at assessing the chikungunya seroprevalence in this population, after over a decade from that epidemic. A multi-stage cross sectional household-based study exploring socio-demographic factors, and knowledge and attitude towards mosquito-borne disease prevention was carried out in 2019. Blood samples from participants aged 15-69 years were taken for chikungunya IgG serological testing. We analyzed associations between chikungunya serological status and selected factors using Poisson regression models, and estimated weighted and adjusted prevalence ratios (w/a PR). The weighted seroprevalence of chikungunya was 34.75% (n = 2853). Seropositivity for IgG anti-chikungunya virus was found associated with living in Mamoudzou (w/a PR = 1.49, 95%CI: 1.21-1.83) and North (w/a PR = 1.41, 95%CI: 1.08-1.84) sectors, being born in the Comoros islands (w/a PR = 1.30, 95%CI: 1.03-1.61), being a student or unpaid trainee (w/a PR = 1.35, 95%CI: 1.01-1.81), living in precarious housing (w/a PR = 1.30, 95%CI: 1.02-1.67), accessing water streams for bathing (w/a PR = 1.72, 95%CI: 1.1-2.7) and knowing that malaria is a mosquito-borne disease (w/a PR = 1.42, 95%CI: 1.21-1.83). Seropositivity was found inversely associated with high education level (w/a PR = 0.50, 95%CI: 0.29-0.86) and living in households with access to running water and toilets (w/a PR = 0.64, 95%CI: 0.51-0.80) (n = 1438). Our results indicate a long-lasting immunity from chikungunya exposure. However, the current population seroprevalence is not enough to protect from future outbreaks. Individuals naïve to chikungunya and living in precarious socio-economic conditions are likely to be at high risk of infection in future outbreaks. To prevent and prepare for future chikungunya epidemics, it is essential to address socio-economic inequalities as a priority, and to strengthen chikungunya surveillance in Mayotte.

Autochthonous dengue in mainland France, 2022: geographical extension and incidence increase.

France faced an unusual situation of dengue transmission in 2022, with 65 autochthonous cases spread over nine transmission events by 21 October. This exceeded the number of cases observed during the entire period 2010 to 2021. Six of these events occurred in departments that had never experienced autochthonous dengue transmission. We provide an update of dengue surveillance data in mainland France in 2022. The multiplication of transmission events calls for continuous adaption of preparedness and response to arbovirus-related risks.

Estimating chikungunya virus transmission parameters and vector control effectiveness highlights key factors to mitigate arboviral disease outbreaks.

BACKGROUND: Viruses transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes have greatly expanded their geographic range in recent decades. They are considered emerging public health threats throughout the world, including Europe. Therefore, public health authorities must be prepared by quantifying the potential magnitude of virus transmission and the effectiveness of interventions. METHODOLOGY: We developed a mathematical model with a vector-host structure for chikungunya virus transmission and estimated model parameters from epidemiological data of the two main autochthonous chikungunya virus transmission events that occurred in Southern France, in Montpellier (2014) and in Le Cannet-des-Maures (2017). We then performed simulations of the model using these estimates to forecast the magnitude of the foci of transmission as a function of the response delay and the moment of virus introduction. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the different simulations underline the relative importance of each variable and can be useful to stakeholders when designing context-based intervention strategies. The findings emphasize the importance of, and advocate for early detection of imported cases and timely biological confirmation of autochthonous cases to ensure timely vector control measures, supporting the implementation and the maintenance of sustainable surveillance systems.

The COVID-19 pandemic should not jeopardize dengue control.

The concurrent circulation of dengue and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may produce many unfavourable outcomes-such as co-infections; delays in diagnosis, treatment, and mitigation measures; overwhelming of the healthcare system; underreporting of cases; deterioration in surveillance and control interventions; and exacerbation of social inequalities. Indeed, lockdown is greatly compromising the effectiveness of vector control, especially social mobilization campaigns and preventive insecticide spraying in private spaces (indoor and peridomestic spraying). Thus, failure to appropriately implement the full range of vector control interventions can lead to a reduction in their overall effectiveness and an increasing risk of vector-borne diseases circulating. Consequently, the health community and policy makers should develop proactive policies and allocate adequate resources to prevent and manage the resurgence of dengue and other vector-borne diseases in the new era of COVID-19.

From importation to autochthonous transmission: Drivers of chikungunya and dengue emergence in a temperate area.

BACKGROUND: The global spread of Aedes albopictus has exposed new geographical areas to the risk of dengue and chikungunya virus transmission. Several autochthonous transmission events have occurred in recent decades in Southern Europe and many indicators suggest that it will become more frequent in this region in the future. Environmental, socioeconomic and climatic factors are generally considered to trigger the emergence of these viruses. Accordingly, a greater knowledge of the determinants of this emergence in a European context is necessary to develop adapted surveillance and control strategies, and public health interventions. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using French surveillance data collected from between 2010 and 2018 in areas of Southern France where Ae. albopictus is already established, we assessed factors associated with the autochthonous transmission of dengue and chikungunya. Cases leading to autochthonous transmission were compared with those without subsequent transmission using binomial regression. We identified a long reporting delay (≥ 21 days) of imported cases to local health authorities as the main driver for autochthonous transmission of dengue and chikungunya in Southern France. The presence of wooded areas around the cases' place of residence and the accumulation of heat during the season also increased the risk of autochthonous arbovirus transmission. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings could inform policy-makers when developing strategies to the emerging threats of dengue and chikungunya in Southern Europe and can be extrapolated in this area to other viruses such as Zika and yellow fever, which share the same vector. Furthermore, our results allow a more accurate characterization of the environments most at risk, and highlight the importance of implementing surveillance systems which ensure the timely reporting and of imported cases and swift interventions.

Rift Valley Fever Outbreak, Mayotte, France, 2018-2019.

From November 2018 through July 2019, an outbreak of Rift Valley fever in humans occurred in Mayotte, France; 142 cases were confirmed. Exposure to animals or their biological fluid was reported by 73% of patients. Health authorities have been implementing control measures, including veterinary surveys, vector control interventions, and prevention measures.

Vector-borne transmission of Zika virus in Europe, southern France, August 2019.

On 1 October 2019, a locally-acquired Zika virus disease case was laboratory confirmed in Hyères, Var department. Active case finding identified two additional locally-acquired cases living within 90 m, with symptom onset 8 days before the index case. Extensive patient interviews did not yield information supporting transmission through sexual contact or substances of human origin. Vector-borne transmission by local Aedes albopictus mosquitoes is the most likely mode of transmission. Here we describe the public health response.

Outbreak of Chikungunya in the French Caribbean Islands of Martinique and Guadeloupe: Findings from a Hospital-Based Surveillance System (2013-2015).

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) emerged in the Caribbean island of Saint-Martin in December 2013. We implemented a hospital-based surveillance system to detect and describe CHIKV cases including severe forms of the infection and deaths in the islands of Martinique and Guadeloupe. A case was defined as a patient with a CHIKV laboratory confirmation cared for in a public hospital for chikungunya for at least 24 hours, and a severe CHIKV case was defined as a CHIKV case presenting one or more organ failures. Sociodemographic, clinical, and laboratory data were collected and cases classified into severe or nonsevere based on medical records. From December 2013 to January 2015, a total of 1,836 hospitalized cases were identified. Rate of hospital admissions for CHIKV infection was 60 per 10,000 suspected clinical CHIKV cases and severity accounted for 12 per 10,000. A total of 74 deaths related to CHIKV infection occurred. Infants and elderly people were more frequently hospitalized compared with others and severity was more frequently reported in elderly subjects and subjects with underlying health condition. Fifteen neonatal infections consecutive to mother-to-child transmission were diagnosed, seven of which were severe. The most vulnerable groups of the population, such as the elderly, infants, individuals with comorbidities, and pregnant women, should remain the main targets of public health priorities.

Preliminary report of an autochthonous chikungunya outbreak in France, July to September 2017.

In August 2017, an autochthonous chikungunya case was reported in south-east France. By mid-September, eight additional autochthonous cases were found in the index case's neighbourhood, where the chikungunya virus vector Aedes albopictus was observed. Genomic characterisation identified an East-Central South African (ECSA) lineage strain, probably from the Central African region and carrying an adaptive mutation facilitating transmission by Ae. albopictus. The event confirms we need early case detection and response to contain chikungunya in Europe.

West Nile virus surveillance in Europe: moving towards an integrated animal-human-vector approach.

This article uses the experience of five European countries to review the integrated approaches (human, animal and vector) for surveillance and monitoring of West Nile virus (WNV) at national and European levels. The epidemiological situation of West Nile fever in Europe is heterogeneous. No model of surveillance and monitoring fits all, hence this article merely encourages countries to implement the integrated approach that meets their needs. Integration of surveillance and monitoring activities conducted by the public health authorities, the animal health authorities and the authorities in charge of vector surveillance and control should improve efficiency and save resources by implementing targeted measures. The creation of a formal interagency working group is identified as a crucial step towards integration. Blood safety is a key incentive for public health authorities to allocate sufficient resources for WNV surveillance, while the facts that an effective vaccine is available for horses and that most infected animals remain asymptomatic make the disease a lesser priority for animal health authorities. The examples described here can support other European countries wishing to strengthen their WNV surveillance or preparedness, and also serve as a model for surveillance and monitoring of other (vector-borne) zoonotic infections.

Zika emergence in the French Territories of America and description of first confirmed cases of Zika virus infection on Martinique, November 2015 to February 2016.

Following of the emergence of Zika virus in Brazil in 2015, an epidemiological surveillance system was quickly implemented in the French overseas Territories of America (FTA) according to previous experience with dengue and chikungunya and has detected first cases of Zika. General practitioners and medical microbiologists were invited to report all clinically suspected cases of Zika, laboratory investigations were systematically conducted (RT-PCR). On 18 December, the first autochthonous case of Zika virus infection was confirmed by RT-PCR on French Guiana and Martinique, indicating introduction of Zika virus in FTA. The viral circulation of Zika virus was then also confirmed on Guadeloupe and Saint-Martin. We report here early findings on 203 confirmed cases of Zika virus infection identified by RT-PCR or seroneutralisation on Martinique Island between 24 November 2015 and 20 January 2016. All cases were investigated. Common clinical signs were observed (maculopapular rash, arthralgia, fever, myalgia and conjunctival hyperaemia) among these patients, but the rash, the foundation of our case definition, may be absent in a significant proportion of patients (16%). These results are important for the implementation of a suspected case definition, the main tool for epidemiological surveillance, in territories that may be affected by ZIKV emergence, including Europe.

Autochthonous dengue outbreak in Nîmes, South of France, July to September 2015.

In August and September 2015, seven locally acquired cases of dengue virus type 1 (DENV-1) were detected in Nîmes, south of France, where Aedes albopictus has been established since 2011. Epidemiological and entomological investigations allowed to steer vector control measures to contain transmission. An imported case from French Polynesia with onset fever on 4 July was identified as primary case. This outbreak occurred from 8 August to 11 September in a 300 m radius area. Six sprayings to control mosquitos were performed in the affected area. We describe the first considerable dengue outbreak in mainland France where only sporadic cases of autochthonous dengue were recorded previously (2010, 2013 and 2014). The 69 day-period between the primary case and the last autochthonous case suggests multiple episodes of mosquito infections. The absence of notification of autochthonous cases during the month following the primary case's symptoms onset could be explained by the occurrence of inapparent illness. Recurrence of cases every year since 2013, the size of the 2015 outbreak and continuing expansion of areas with presence of Ae. albopictus highlight the threat of arboviral diseases in parts of Europe. Thus, European guidelines should be assessed and adjusted to the current context.

Imported chikungunya cases in an area newly colonised by Aedes albopictus: mathematical assessment of the best public health strategy.

We aimed to identify the optimal strategy that should be used by public health authorities against transmission of chikungunya virus in mainland France. The theoretical model we developed, which mimics the current surveillance system, predicted that without vector control (VC), the probability of local transmission after introduction of viraemic patients was around 2%, and the number of autochthonous cases between five and 15 persons per hectare, depending on the number of imported cases. Compared with this baseline, we considered different strategies (VC after clinical suspicion of a case or after laboratory confirmation, for imported or autochthonous cases): Awaiting laboratory confirmation for suspected imported cases to implement VC had no significant impact on the epidemiological outcomes analysed, mainly because of the delay before entering into the surveillance system. However, waiting for laboratory confirmation of autochthonous cases before implementing VC resulted in more frequent outbreaks. After analysing the economic cost of such strategies, our study suggested implementing VC immediately after the notification of a suspected autochthonous case as the most efficient strategy in settings where local transmission has been proven. Nevertheless, we identified that decreasing reporting time for imported cases should remain a priority.

A comparative examination of tuberculosis immigration medical screening programs from selected countries with high immigration and low tuberculosis incidence rates.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) in migrants is an ongoing challenge in several low TB incidence countries since a large proportion of TB in these countries occurs in migrants from high incidence countries. To meet these challenges, several countries utilize TB screening programs. The programs attempt to identify and treat those with active and/or infectious stages of the disease. In addition, screening is used to identify and manage those with latent or inactive disease after arrival. Between nations, considerable variation exists in the methods used in migration-associated TB screening. The present study aimed to compare the TB immigration medical examination requirements in selected countries of high immigration and low TB incidence rates. METHODS: Descriptive study of immigration TB screening programs. RESULTS: 16 out of 18 eligible countries responded to the written standardized survey and phone interview. Comparisons in specific areas of TB immigration screening programs included authorities responsible for TB screening, the primary objectives of the TB screening program, the yield of detection of active TB disease, screening details and aspects of follow up for inactive pulmonary TB. No two countries had the same approach to TB screening among migrants. Important differences, common practices, common problems, evidence or lack of evidence for program specifics were noted. CONCLUSIONS: In spite of common goals, there is great diversity in the processes and practices designed to mitigate the impact of migration-associated TB among nations that screen migrants for the disease. The long-term goal in decreasing migration-related introduction of TB from high to low incidence countries remains diminishing the prevalence of the disease in those high incidence locations. In the meantime, existing or planned migration screening programs for TB can be made more efficient and evidenced based. Cooperation among countries doing research in the areas outlined in this study should facilitate the development of improved screening programs.